Every Polymarket wallet gets a single 0–100 CopyGrade Score — a verdict on how copyable it is right now. The score is the weighted blend of five factors, each scored 0–100 and recomputed on each sync. A severe Farming Risk finding can veto an otherwise-strong score.
Each finding is weighted by severity (how bad if real) and confidence (how far past its threshold the pattern sits); the level rolls up that weighted total, so one unmistakable signature can veto while two borderline ones may only warn. Each detector's definition and exact threshold lives on the farming detection page.
Together with the farming veto these are the four caps on the blended score: a wallet must clear all of them to read as a copy candidate. Volume is not one of them — an open limitation. A minimum-stake floor was measured on 2026-09-01 and parked for re-measurement rather than built: small books mostly went quiet rather than losing, and their hit rate was not monotone in volume. Nothing in the blend is dollar-weighted, so a statistically clean wallet with a few hundred dollars of tracked volume can reach the top band.
What the metric is: for each snapshot, a simulated copier mirrors only the positions the wallet opens after that moment (buy-time windowed), and the outcome is the realized return of the round-trips that close within the horizon, net of modeled fees. What it isn't: the realized figure counts only round-trips that close inside the horizon, which understates slow, patient strategies. Beside it we now show a mark-to-market estimate that also marks the positions still open at the horizon's end to current price — it exists for recently-matured cohorts and reads “—” for older windows (marking a long-closed window to today's prices would be a fiction, not a measurement). Dormant windows — where the wallet did nothing for a copier to mirror — are excluded, so the table is not diluted by no-observation rows. Only windows the sync observed end-to-end count, and a band is published only once it holds at least 30 outcomes.
| Score band at snapshot | n | Median return | Mean return | Median MTM | Mean MTM | % positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75–100 | 2,094 | 0.00% | +2.75% | 0.00% | −4.84% | 30% |
| 50–74 | 24,326 | 0.00% | +2.01% | −0.56% | −10.59% | 22% |
| 30–49 | 56,307 | 0.00% | +1.14% | −1.49% | −10.03% | 23% |
| 0–29 | 2,168 | 0.00% | −1.20% | −3.00% | −16.48% | 6% |
| Score band at snapshot | n | Median return | Mean return | Median MTM | Mean MTM | % positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75–100 | 1,985 | 0.00% | +1.96% | −1.46% | −11.47% | 40% |
| 50–74 | 26,528 | 0.00% | +1.70% | −0.63% | −11.96% | 25% |
| 30–49 | 58,987 | 0.00% | +1.28% | −2.45% | −11.77% | 29% |
| 0–29 | 1,747 | 0.00% | −1.75% | −11.88% | −21.91% | 10% |
| Score band at snapshot | n | Median return | Mean return | Median MTM | Mean MTM | % positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75–100 | 408 | 0.00% | −2.40% | −11.36% | −25.33% | 40% |
| 50–74 | 5,031 | 0.00% | +1.30% | −0.34% | −11.06% | 20% |
| 30–49 | 11,725 | 0.00% | +1.82% | −1.98% | −12.63% | 31% |
| 0–29 | 273 | 0.00% | −2.33% | −27.44% | −32.38% | 14% |
Until these tables show a persistent positive relationship, the CopyGrade Score remains a documented v1 heuristic — our assessment methodology, not a proven predictor. Aggregates only; no individual wallet's outcome is published. Last computed Oct 12, 2026 · refreshed daily.
These are the current heuristic v1 priors — graded against real wallet outcomes in the track record above, so the numbers can change as the model is recalibrated. CopyGrade is analysis-only — it never executes trades or holds funds. Not financial advice.