CopyGrade
Home/Copy Verdict

manuelarias

0x0086cb69cb8540e5561ba1968718e3b305631b8cEmbed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Crypto
Farming risk: flagged
6 signals our model reads as severe — a pattern consistent with monetising copiers.
Still trading: yes
Last trade today · 918 trades in the last 90 days.
Per $500 copied: ≈ −$500
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge -97.8%, realistic -100.0%.
29/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid — farming risk
Based on a 90-day trade window
Sign up free to watch this wallet and get alerts →
High farming risk
6 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is manuelarias worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: our model flags severe farming risk — a trade pattern consistent with monetising copiers rather than edge.

This wallet scores 29/100 — avoid — farming risk. Over the trailing 90 days it made 918 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -100.0% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It is flagged for 6 farming signals.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 48/100 with a -1.4% realistic post-fee edge (all 14,056 graded wallets, as of October 24, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded October 24, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Aug 20 – Oct 24, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 66 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
48
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
11
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
0
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
63
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
High farming risk
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-97.8%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-100.0%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−2.2 pts
Forensic check

6 farming signals detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
High farming risk
6 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 1,000 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
121
Avg hold
39 hours
Active span
Jul 22 – Oct 23, 2026
Trades per month
136
Jul
187
Aug
420
Sep
257
Oct
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?31 fills
  2. Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?16 fills
  3. Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?14 fills
  4. Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?13 fills
  5. Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?12 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Culture
-11.0%
477 trades
Sports
-6.8%
403 trades
Crypto
+11.1%
95 trades
Economy
0.0%
23 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
Open in the app — free
Keep digging

Other graded wallets

CheffromHell
Strong copy candidate
94
phatsddds125
Strong copy candidate
94
dasboot83
Strong copy candidate
94
PoppyG
Strong copy candidate
94
76zij3d3cq9c
Strong copy candidate
93
ziiizar01
Strong copy candidate
93
Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.