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HotWeatherGirl

0x1a11c4e9d41451111650457598a63e480f50e55dEmbed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Science
Farming risk: flagged
1 signal our model reads as severe — a pattern consistent with monetising copiers.
Still trading: yes
Last trade today · 1.3k trades in the last 90 days.
Per $500 copied: ≈ −$165
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge -18.8%, realistic -32.9%.
30/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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High farming risk
1 signal detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is HotWeatherGirl worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: our model flags severe farming risk — a trade pattern consistent with monetising copiers rather than edge.

This wallet scores 30/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 1.3k trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -32.9% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It is flagged for 1 farming signal.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 48/100 with a -1.4% realistic post-fee edge (all 12,742 graded wallets, as of October 11, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded October 11, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Aug 23 – Oct 11, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Caution · 18 daysNegative · 1 dayCaution · 9 daysNegative · 1 dayCaution · 4 daysNegative · 17 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
93
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
23
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
33
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
63
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
High farming risk
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-18.8%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-32.9%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−14.1 pts
Forensic check

1 farming signal detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
High farming risk
1 signal detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 1,266 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
364
Avg hold
1.2 hours
Active span
Jul 13 – Oct 11, 2026
Trades per month
8
Jul
66
Aug
790
Sep
402
Oct
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 22?10 fills
  2. Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 7?9 fills
  3. Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 9?9 fills
  4. Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on September 16?9 fills
  5. Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on October 4?9 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Science
+12.7%
1253 trades
Crypto
+8.0%
11 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
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What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
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Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.