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5038813185

0x453ae5e896ea243f332ed97c1c77bf2888ce81d2Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Sports
Farming risk: flagged
6 signals our model reads as severe — a pattern consistent with monetising copiers.
Still trading: yes
Last trade 2 days ago · 431 trades in the last 90 days.
Per $500 copied: ≈ −$118
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge -15.0%, realistic -23.6%.
30/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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High farming risk
6 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is 5038813185 worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: our model flags severe farming risk — a trade pattern consistent with monetising copiers rather than edge.

This wallet scores 30/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 431 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -23.6% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It is flagged for 6 farming signals.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 48/100 with a -1.5% realistic post-fee edge (all 13,539 graded wallets, as of October 19, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded October 19, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Aug 30 – Oct 19, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 51 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
64
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
17
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
58
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
63
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
High farming risk
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-15.0%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-23.6%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−8.6 pts
Forensic check

6 farming signals detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
High farming risk
6 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 1,000 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
272
Avg hold
8.8 days
Active span
Jun 14 – Oct 16, 2026
Trades per month
382
Jun
202
Jul
167
Aug
223
Sep
26
Oct
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?92 fills
  2. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?45 fills
  3. Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?35 fills
  4. Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?35 fills
  5. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?34 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Politics
-29.8%
232 trades
Crypto
+3.6%
221 trades
Economy
+10.6%
220 trades
World
-7.2%
195 trades
Sports
+21.7%
132 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
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What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
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Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.