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Waterfall

0x63850ce907044eac77fba13d59f263ade68093f2Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Crypto
Farming risk: under review
1 emerging signal — our model is watching, not yet flagging.
Still trading: yes
Last trade today · 644 trades in the last 90 days.
Per $500 copied: ≈ −$14
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge -1.8%, realistic -2.7%.
52/100
CopyGrade Score
Copy with caution
Based on a 90-day trade window
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Emerging signals
1 early signal — not conclusive.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is Waterfall worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Watch, don't copy yet: emerging farming signals are under review.

This wallet scores 52/100 — copy with caution. Over the trailing 90 days it made 644 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -2.7% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It has 1 emerging farming signal under review.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 47/100 with a -1.1% realistic post-fee edge (all 9,245 graded wallets, as of September 5, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded September 5, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Sep 4 – Sep 5, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Caution · 2 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
51
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
16
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
90
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
55
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
Emerging signals
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-1.8%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-2.7%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−0.9 pts
Forensic check

1 farming signal detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
Emerging signals
1 early signal — not conclusive.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 1,000 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
133
Avg hold
3.0 days
Active span
Mar 24 – Sep 5, 2026
Trades per month
34
Mar
72
Apr
178
May
317
Jun
108
Jul
241
Aug
50
Sep
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video?34 fills
  2. Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?28 fills
  3. Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video?26 fills
  4. Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?23 fills
  5. Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?21 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Culture
+1.5%
720 trades
Crypto
+3.7%
74 trades
Economy
+0.3%
39 trades
Mentions
0.0%
25 trades
Politics
0.0%
4 trades
Sports
0.0%
4 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
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Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.