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casualbet2020

0x65c18d740c8246af3353741c0b32e4b6da552988Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Polymarket #22 · 30d profitPrimarily: Sports
36/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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Emerging signals
2 early signals — not conclusive.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is casualbet2020 worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: the wallet grades in the lowest band — the risk-adjusted record doesn't support copying.

This wallet scores 36/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 356 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -100.0% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It has 2 emerging farming signals under review.

For context, the median active Polymarket wallet scores 42/100 with a -4.8% realistic post-fee edge (July 2026 snapshot) — all published numbers.

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Aug 5 – Aug 27, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 23 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Each scored 0–100, recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
46
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
26
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
0
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
50
Farming Safety
Clean-behaviour score — higher is safer to copy.
60
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-99.6%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-100.0%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−0.4 pts
Forensic check

2 farming signals detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
Emerging signals
2 early signals — not conclusive.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 458 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
1
Avg hold
under an hour
Active span
May 22 – Aug 26, 2026
Trades per month
112
May
89
Jun
122
Jul
135
Aug
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Valorant: G2 Gozen vs Karmine Corp GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage18 fills
  2. Valorant: Division One vs Dynamo Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage12 fills
  3. Valorant: Joblife vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs12 fills
  4. Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage11 fills
  5. Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage8 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Sports
0.0%
458 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
Open in the app — free
Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.