CopyGrade
Home/Copy Verdict

Welcome-Octopus

0x680ba60548d383b775c024b90a49031fd6251077Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: World
Farming risk: clean
No farming signals detected in the graded window.
Still trading: yes
Last trade yesterday · 68 trades in the last 90 days.
Per $500 copied: ≈ −$17
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge -2.8%, realistic -3.4%.
64/100
CopyGrade Score
Copy with caution
Based on a 90-day trade window
Sign up free to watch this wallet and get alerts →
The answer

Is Welcome-Octopus worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Watch, don't copy yet: its realistic post-fee edge (-3.40%) is below the 1% copy floor — copying nets ~nothing.

This wallet scores 64/100 — copy with caution. Over the trailing 90 days it made 68 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -3.4% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. Its farming-risk check is clean.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 48/100 with a -1.4% realistic post-fee edge (all 11,858 graded wallets, as of October 2, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded October 2, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Sep 22 – Oct 2, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Positive · 1 dayCaution · 10 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
84
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
26
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
76
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
72
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
No farming detected
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-2.8%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-3.4%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−0.6 pts
Forensic check

Farming Risk: clean

No behavioral farming signals in the trailing 90-day window.
No farming detected
Behavioral signals look clean.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Iceberg accumulationnot detected
Self-trade washnot detected
Manufactured-volume churnnot detected
Pump-and-dumpnot detected
Copy-baitnot detected
YES/NO stealth mergenot detected
Decoy wallet clusternot detected
Cross-wallet coordinationnot detected
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 193 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
77
Avg hold
14.6 days
Active span
Mar 7 – Sep 30, 2026
Trades per month
50
Mar
56
Apr
14
May
5
Jun
9
Jul
17
Aug
42
Sep
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?8 fills
  2. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?7 fills
  3. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?7 fills
  4. Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?7 fills
  5. Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?6 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Economy
+4.0%
158 trades
Sports
+35.5%
15 trades
Politics
+1.1%
12 trades
World
+35.8%
8 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
Open in the app — free
Keep digging

Other graded wallets

phatsddds125
Strong copy candidate
94
dasboot83
Strong copy candidate
94
PoppyG
Strong copy candidate
94
Misty-Notoriety-Manager
Strong copy candidate
94
rtmluck
Strong copy candidate
93
Rosypal
Strong copy candidate
93
Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.