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Home/Copy Verdict

exstnc

0x715ce1ecfa3836fbb10e6829109ebce10a5f19d1Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Sports
Farming risk: clean
No farming signals detected in the graded window.
Still trading: yes
Last trade 3 days ago · 44 trades in the last 90 days.
Per $500 copied: ≈ −$500
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge -100.0%, realistic -100.0%.
29/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid — farming risk
Based on a 90-day trade window
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The answer

Is exstnc worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: the wallet grades in the lowest band — the risk-adjusted record doesn't support copying.

This wallet scores 29/100 — avoid — farming risk. Over the trailing 90 days it made 44 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -100.0% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. Its farming-risk check is clean.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 48/100 with a -1.4% realistic post-fee edge (all 11,862 graded wallets, as of October 2, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded October 2, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Sep 2 – Oct 2, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 31 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
16
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
20
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
0
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
35
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
No farming detected
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-100.0%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-100.0%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−0.0 pts
Forensic check

Farming Risk: clean

No behavioral farming signals in the trailing 90-day window.
No farming detected
Behavioral signals look clean.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Iceberg accumulationnot detected
Self-trade washnot detected
Manufactured-volume churnnot detected
Pump-and-dumpnot detected
Copy-baitnot detected
YES/NO stealth mergenot detected
Decoy wallet clusternot detected
Cross-wallet coordinationnot detected
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 44 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
3
Avg hold
under an hour
Active span
Aug 29 – Sep 28, 2026
Trades per month
4
Aug
40
Sep
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Spread: Packers (-3.5)4 fills
  2. Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.53 fills
  3. Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.53 fills
  4. Spread: Jaguars (-7.5)3 fills
  5. Juventus FC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 2.52 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Sports
-0.1%
44 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
Open in the app — free
Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.