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probability

0x74f1b8944c7b10f7239e3dda0de6b8ee42e816a8Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Tech
Farming risk: flagged
3 signals our model reads as severe — a pattern consistent with monetising copiers.
Still trading: yes
Last trade today · 1.3k trades in the last 90 days.
Per $500 copied: ≈ +$2
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge +1.6%, realistic +0.4%.
30/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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High farming risk
3 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is probability worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: our model flags severe farming risk — a trade pattern consistent with monetising copiers rather than edge.

This wallet scores 30/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 1.3k trades with a realistic post-fee edge of +0.4% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It is flagged for 3 farming signals.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 48/100 with a -1.4% realistic post-fee edge (all 11,858 graded wallets, as of October 2, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded October 2, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Jul 27 – Oct 2, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 68 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
56
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
58
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
93
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
41
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
High farming risk
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
+1.6%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
+0.4%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−1.2 pts
Forensic check

3 farming signals detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
High farming risk
3 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 1,329 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
18
Avg hold
6.7 days
Active span
Jul 4 – Oct 1, 2026
Trades per month
464
Jul
484
Aug
286
Sep
95
Oct
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Geelong Cats11 fills
  2. T20 Lanka Premier League: Kandy Royals vs Galle Gallants11 fills
  3. Will British or Norwegian Airways swap logos on Instagram?10 fills
  4. Swiss Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Raphael Collignon AND Generali Open, Qualification: Jurij Rodionov vs Vitaliy Sachko9 fills
  5. Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election?8 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Sports
-0.1%
606 trades
Politics
-0.1%
460 trades
Economy
0.0%
143 trades
Tech
0.0%
98 trades
World
-0.3%
16 trades
Crypto
0.0%
6 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
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What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
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Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.