CopyGrade
Home/Copy Verdict

Alarmed-Term

0x90bdbcee393a112387d0d504768777005d1779a8Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Sports
Farming risk: clean
No farming signals detected in the graded window.
Still trading: gone quiet
Last trade 12 days ago · 76 trades in the last 90 days. Copying a quiet wallet buys nothing until it trades again.
Per $500 copied: ≈ +$30
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge +7.6%, realistic +5.9%.
67/100
CopyGrade Score
Copy candidate
Based on a 90-day trade window
Sign up free to watch this wallet and get alerts →
The answer

Is Alarmed-Term worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Clean, with a real +5.9% edge, but the overall score stops short of the top band — worth a reduced allocation, not a full commitment.

This wallet scores 67/100 — copy candidate. Over the trailing 90 days it made 76 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of +5.9% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. Its farming-risk check is clean.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 47/100 with a -1.1% realistic post-fee edge (all 9,101 graded wallets, as of September 4, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded September 4, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Jul 16 – Sep 4, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Positive · 8 daysCaution · 43 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
88
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
35
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
40
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
82
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
No farming detected
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
+7.6%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
+5.9%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−1.7 pts
Forensic check

Farming Risk: clean

No behavioral farming signals in the trailing 90-day window.
No farming detected
Behavioral signals look clean.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Iceberg accumulationnot detected
Self-trade washnot detected
Manufactured-volume churnnot detected
Pump-and-dumpnot detected
Copy-baitnot detected
YES/NO stealth mergenot detected
Decoy wallet clusternot detected
Cross-wallet coordinationnot detected
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 100 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
27
Avg hold
46 hours
Active span
May 30 – Aug 22, 2026
Trades per month
13
May
37
Jun
31
Jul
19
Aug
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees5 fills
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers4 fills
  3. Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET4 fills
  4. Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers4 fills
  5. Knicks vs. Spurs4 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Sports
+36.0%
83 trades
Crypto
+34.5%
16 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
Open in the app — free
Keep digging

Other graded wallets

PoppyG
Strong copy candidate
95
phatsddds125
Strong copy candidate
94
Misty-Notoriety-Manager
Strong copy candidate
94
Duncs723
Strong copy candidate
93
Glaring-Farrow
Strong copy candidate
93
ziiizar01
Strong copy candidate
93
Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.