CopyGrade
Home/Copy Verdict

aguilar

0x90ca4ee2bf5595d32a144389c937f19b4c927168Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Sports
55/100
CopyGrade Score
Copy with caution
Based on a 90-day trade window
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The answer

Is aguilar worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Watch, don't copy yet: only 6 trades in the last 90 days — too thin a record to commit to.

This wallet scores 55/100 — copy with caution. Over the trailing 90 days it made 6 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -33.2% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. Its farming-risk check is clean.

For context, the median active Polymarket wallet scores 42/100 with a -4.8% realistic post-fee edge (July 2026 snapshot) — all published numbers.

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Aug 4 – Aug 27, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Caution · 24 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Each scored 0–100, recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
71
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
20
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
37
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
61
Farming Safety
Clean-behaviour score — higher is safer to copy.
92
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-27.7%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-33.2%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−5.5 pts
Forensic check

Farming Risk: clean

No behavioral farming signals in the trailing 90-day window.
No farming detected
Behavioral signals look clean.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Iceberg accumulationnot detected
Self-trade washnot detected
Manufactured-volume churnnot detected
Pump-and-dumpnot detected
Copy-baitnot detected
YES/NO stealth mergenot detected
Decoy wallet clusternot detected
Cross-wallet coordinationnot detected
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 311 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
98
Avg hold
4.3 days
Active span
Jun 17 – Aug 4, 2026
Trades per month
11
Sep
75
Oct
1
Nov
4
Dec
18
Jan
16
Feb
7
Mar
1
Apr
0
May
2
Jun
3
Jul
1
Aug
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?18 fills
  2. China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?14 fills
  3. Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?11 fills
  4. Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?9 fills
  5. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?8 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
World
-8.3%
157 trades
Science
+7.6%
78 trades
Politics
+0.4%
59 trades
Culture
+3.2%
10 trades
Sports
+83.1%
5 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
Open in the app — free
Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.