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surfandturf

0x9f2fe025f84839ca81dd8e0338892605702d2ca8Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Polymarket #46 · 7d volumePrimarily: Sports
Farming risk: flagged
3 signals our model reads as severe — a pattern consistent with monetising copiers.
Still trading: yes
Last trade today · 343 trades in the last 90 days.
Per $500 copied: ≈ +$1
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge +0.5%, realistic +0.1%.
30/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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High farming risk
3 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is surfandturf worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: our model flags severe farming risk — a trade pattern consistent with monetising copiers rather than edge.

This wallet scores 30/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 343 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of +0.1% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It is flagged for 3 farming signals.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 48/100 with a -1.4% realistic post-fee edge (all 12,778 graded wallets, as of October 11, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded October 11, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Jul 13 – Oct 11, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 91 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
94
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
51
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
93
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
46
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
High farming risk
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
+0.5%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
+0.1%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−0.4 pts
Recent form · last 14 days

8–5 on game moneylines

13 settled calls on NFL, MLB and CFB moneylines in the last 14 days — pre-kickoff net positions of $250 or more, settled by the final.
Expected hits
6.8 of 13
Current streak
1 hit

Expected hits is the sum of the prices paid — how many of these calls the market itself expected to win. A record only means something against that number.

Tulane vs. Army
CFB · Oct 10 · Army at 61¢
hit
Lions vs. Panthers
NFL · Oct 5 · Lions at 66¢
miss
Jets vs. Bears
NFL · Oct 4 · Jets at 37¢
miss
Colts vs. Commanders
NFL · Oct 4 · Commanders at 34¢
miss
San Jose State vs. Hawai'i
CFB · Oct 4 · San Jose State at 44¢
hit
Steelers vs. Browns
NFL · Oct 2 · Steelers at 59¢
miss

Form is display only — it does not move the CopyGrade Score. Read from the ingested trade tape and each game's settled final; a position sold after kickoff still counts as the call it was at kickoff. Stakes and dollar results are on the in-app verdict.

Forensic check

3 farming signals detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
High farming risk
3 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 1,000 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
80
Avg hold
2.3 hours
Active span
Apr 12 – Oct 11, 2026
Trades per month
94
Apr
139
May
318
Jun
226
Jul
43
Aug
123
Sep
57
Oct
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?18 fills
  2. 76ers vs. Celtics13 fills
  3. France vs. Spain: Team to Advance12 fills
  4. Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?12 fills
  5. Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?12 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Sports
+0.5%
993 trades
Economy
-0.4%
7 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
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What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
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Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.