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Home/Copy Verdict

time-and-fate

0xced5856bbc7b6208c17f145fdbd42d340586e28dEmbed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Culture
30/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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High farming risk
16 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is time-and-fate worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: our model flags severe farming risk — a trade pattern consistent with monetising copiers rather than edge.

This wallet scores 30/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 80 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -8.4% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It is flagged for 16 farming signals.

For context, the median active Polymarket wallet scores 42/100 with a -4.8% realistic post-fee edge (July 2026 snapshot) — all published numbers.

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Jun 2 – Aug 26, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Caution · 2 daysNegative · 74 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Each scored 0–100, recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
71
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
23
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
71
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
69
Farming Safety
Clean-behaviour score — higher is safer to copy.
18
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-5.5%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-8.4%
The gap — what latency and fees erase2.9 pts
Forensic check

16 farming signals detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
High farming risk
16 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 589 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
81
Avg hold
8.3 hours
Active span
Nov 21 – Jul 25, 2026
Trades per month
8
Nov
0
Dec
0
Jan
0
Feb
10
Mar
286
Apr
220
May
54
Jun
11
Jul
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad33 fills
  2. Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Kings31 fills
  3. Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans27 fills
  4. Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders25 fills
  5. Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians21 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Sports
+1.0%
358 trades
Science
+3.7%
205 trades
Crypto
+16.6%
17 trades
Culture
+20.0%
5 trades
Economy
0.0%
4 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
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Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.