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Herdonia

0xd106952ebf30a3125affd8a23b6c1f30c35fc79cEmbed badgeView on Polymarket
Polymarket #37 · 7d volumePrimarily: Sports
Farming risk: flagged
59 signals our model reads as severe — a pattern consistent with monetising copiers.
Still trading: yes
Last trade yesterday · 6.7k trades in the last 90 days.
Per $500 copied: ≈ −$500
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge -62.8%, realistic -100.0%.
30/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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High farming risk
59 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is Herdonia worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: our model flags severe farming risk — a trade pattern consistent with monetising copiers rather than edge.

This wallet scores 30/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 6.7k trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -100.0% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It is flagged for 59 farming signals.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 48/100 with a -1.4% realistic post-fee edge (all 11,862 graded wallets, as of October 2, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded October 2, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Sep 14 – Oct 2, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 19 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
46
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
30
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
0
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
50
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
High farming risk
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-62.8%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-100.0%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−37.2 pts
Recent form · last 14 days

50–36 on game moneylines

86 settled calls on CFB, NFL and MLB moneylines in the last 14 days — pre-kickoff net positions of $250 or more, settled by the final.
Expected hits
52.5 of 86
Current streak
—

Expected hits is the sum of the prices paid — how many of these calls the market itself expected to win. A record only means something against that number.

Steelers vs. Browns
NFL · Oct 2 · Steelers at 58¢
miss
Eagles vs. Bears
NFL · Sep 29 · Eagles at 64¢
miss
Rams vs. Broncos
NFL · Sep 28 · Broncos at 46¢
hit
Ravens vs. Cowboys
NFL · Sep 27 · Cowboys at 38¢
miss
Raiders vs. Saints
NFL · Sep 27 · Saints at 62¢
miss
Cardinals vs. 49ers
NFL · Sep 27 · 49ers at 78¢
hit

Form is display only — it does not move the CopyGrade Score. Read from the ingested trade tape and each game's settled final; a position sold after kickoff still counts as the call it was at kickoff. Stakes and dollar results are on the in-app verdict.

Forensic check

59 farming signals detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
High farming risk
59 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 6,738 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
0
Avg hold
—
Active span
Jul 4 – Sep 30, 2026
Trades per month
1173
Jul
5
Aug
5560
Sep
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Spread: Eagles (-4.5)165 fills
  2. Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)129 fills
  3. Cardinals vs. 49ers110 fills
  4. New Hampshire vs. Sacred Heart91 fills
  5. Spread: Packers (-6.5)88 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Sports
0.0%
6738 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
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Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.