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cigarettes

0xd218e474776403a330142299f7796e8ba32eb5c9Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Polymarket #8 · all-time volumePrimarily: Sports
28/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid — farming risk
Based on a 90-day trade window
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High farming risk
71 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is cigarettes worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: our model flags severe farming risk — a trade pattern consistent with monetising copiers rather than edge.

This wallet scores 28/100 — avoid — farming risk. Over the trailing 90 days it made 10.0k trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -100.0% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It is flagged for 71 farming signals.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 47/100 with a -1% realistic post-fee edge (all 8,557 graded wallets, as of August 29, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded August 29, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Jun 7 – Aug 29, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 83 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
46
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
21
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
0
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
50
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
High farming risk
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-67.2%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-100.0%
The gap — what latency and fees erase32.8 pts
Forensic check

71 farming signals detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
High farming risk
71 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 10,001 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
0
Avg hold
Active span
Aug 12 – Aug 29, 2026
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?95 fills
  2. Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?95 fills
  3. Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?92 fills
  4. Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?91 fills
  5. Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?90 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Sports
0.0%
3200 trades
Politics
0.0%
2639 trades
Science
0.0%
2545 trades
Tech
0.0%
556 trades
Culture
0.0%
503 trades
Economy
0.0%
489 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
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What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
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Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.