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firebat

0xd43dd81540543c2450a68a641437244f1ad08a2aEmbed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Science
30/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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High farming risk
5 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is firebat worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: our model flags severe farming risk — a trade pattern consistent with monetising copiers rather than edge.

This wallet scores 30/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 193 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -27.7% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It is flagged for 5 farming signals.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 47/100 with a -1% realistic post-fee edge (all 8,413 graded wallets, as of August 28, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded August 28, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, May 30 – Aug 28, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Caution · 1 dayPositive · 2 daysNegative · 76 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Each scored 0–100, recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
47
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
8
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
53
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
58
Farming Safety
Clean-behaviour score — higher is safer to copy.
18
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-18.9%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-27.7%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−8.8 pts
Forensic check

5 farming signals detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
High farming risk
5 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 572 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
164
Avg hold
3.0 days
Active span
Apr 28 – Aug 25, 2026
Trades per month
32
Apr
374
May
125
Jun
4
Jul
37
Aug
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?45 fills
  2. Iran coup attempt by June 30?32 fills
  3. US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?32 fills
  4. Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?31 fills
  5. Epstein suicide note released by May 8?25 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
World
-16.9%
186 trades
Science
+46.1%
128 trades
Culture
-3.7%
32 trades
Sports
0.0%
11 trades
Tech
-6.6%
9 trades
Crypto
0.0%
7 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
Open in the app — free
Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.