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nifty-mcarthy

0xd632c1e14323b75456ea0a58d90b05fb7b7a1b2fEmbed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Politics
30/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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High farming risk
1 signal detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is nifty-mcarthy worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: our model flags severe farming risk — a trade pattern consistent with monetising copiers rather than edge.

This wallet scores 30/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 621 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -79.0% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It is flagged for 1 farming signal.

For context, the median active Polymarket wallet scores 42/100 with a -4.8% realistic post-fee edge (July 2026 snapshot) — all published numbers.

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Aug 8 – Aug 26, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 19 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Each scored 0–100, recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
53
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
14
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
13
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
56
Farming Safety
Clean-behaviour score — higher is safer to copy.
18
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-46.0%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-79.0%
The gap — what latency and fees erase33.0 pts
Forensic check

1 farming signal detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
High farming risk
1 signal detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 1,000 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
199
Avg hold
24 hours
Active span
Apr 27 – Aug 19, 2026
Trades per month
42
Apr
337
May
0
Jun
606
Jul
15
Aug
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8AM ET15 fills
  2. Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET10 fills
  3. Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET6 fills
  4. Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2PM ET5 fills
  5. Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET4 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Crypto
-2.6%
971 trades
Economy
-80.2%
12 trades
Politics
+4.6%
11 trades
World
-2.7%
6 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
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What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
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Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.