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ArielFilipino

0xe18ecc345e00ee7c4f2d1f676f3dd2acb112f826Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Polymarket #16 · 7d profitPrimarily: Sports
Farming risk: clean
No farming signals detected in the graded window.
Still trading: yes
Last trade today · 185 trades in the last 90 days.
Per $500 copied: ≈ −$189
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge -26.2%, realistic -37.8%.
49/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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The answer

Is ArielFilipino worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: the wallet grades in the lowest band — the risk-adjusted record doesn't support copying.

This wallet scores 49/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 185 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -37.8% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. Its farming-risk check is clean.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 48/100 with a -1.5% realistic post-fee edge (all 13,503 graded wallets, as of October 18, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded October 18, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Oct 10 – Oct 18, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 9 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
44
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
30
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
43
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
50
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
No farming detected
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-26.2%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-37.8%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−11.6 pts
Recent form · last 14 days

2–1 on game moneylines

3 settled calls on CFB and NFL moneylines in the last 14 days — under 5, too few to read as a record. Calls are pre-kickoff net positions of $250 or more, settled by the final.
Expected hits
1.6 of 3
Current streak
2 hits

Expected hits is the sum of the prices paid — how many of these calls the market itself expected to win. A record only means something against that number. 1 call still awaiting a final.

Bears vs. Falcons
NFL · Oct 18 · Bears at 51¢
hit
Saints vs. Giants
NFL · Oct 18 · Saints at 52¢
pending
Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina
CFB · Oct 17 · Appalachian State at 53¢
hit
Georgia vs. Alabama
CFB · Oct 10 · Alabama at 54¢
miss

Form is display only — it does not move the CopyGrade Score. Read from the ingested trade tape and each game's settled final; a position sold after kickoff still counts as the call it was at kickoff. Stakes and dollar results are on the in-app verdict.

Forensic check

Farming Risk: clean

No behavioral farming signals in the trailing 90-day window.
No farming detected
Behavioral signals look clean.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Iceberg accumulationnot detected
Self-trade washnot detected
Manufactured-volume churnnot detected
Pump-and-dumpnot detected
Copy-baitnot detected
YES/NO stealth mergenot detected
Decoy wallet clusternot detected
Cross-wallet coordinationnot detected
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 185 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
0
Avg hold
—
Active span
Oct 1 – Oct 18, 2026
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Spread: James Madison (-12.5)21 fills
  2. Spread: USC (-9.5)6 fills
  3. Spread: Michigan (-5.5)5 fills
  4. Louisiana Tech vs. Louisiana-Monroe: O/U 57.54 fills
  5. Rutgers vs. Maryland: O/U 57.54 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Sports
0.0%
185 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
Open in the app — free
Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.