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Home/Copy Verdict

alwaysbear

0xe4b6e9e514f2f2e1c73bf59290f10acc7f0689a5Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Economy
64/100
CopyGrade Score
Copy with caution
Based on a 90-day trade window
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The answer

Is alwaysbear worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Watch, don't copy yet: its realistic post-fee edge (-10.70%) is below the 1% copy floor — copying nets ~nothing.

This wallet scores 64/100 — copy with caution. Over the trailing 90 days it made 75 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -10.7% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. Its farming-risk check is clean.

For context, the median active Polymarket wallet scores 42/100 with a -4.8% realistic post-fee edge (July 2026 snapshot) — all published numbers.

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Aug 9 – Aug 26, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Caution · 18 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Each scored 0–100, recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
98
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
20
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
75
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
84
Farming Safety
Clean-behaviour score — higher is safer to copy.
92
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-8.9%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-10.7%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−1.8 pts
Forensic check

Farming Risk: clean

No behavioral farming signals in the trailing 90-day window.
No farming detected
Behavioral signals look clean.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Iceberg accumulationnot detected
Self-trade washnot detected
Manufactured-volume churnnot detected
Pump-and-dumpnot detected
Copy-baitnot detected
YES/NO stealth mergenot detected
Decoy wallet clusternot detected
Cross-wallet coordinationnot detected
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 402 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
32
Avg hold
35.7 days
Active span
Jan 17 – Aug 9, 2026
Trades per month
28
Jan
26
Feb
157
Mar
65
Apr
51
May
14
Jun
53
Jul
8
Aug
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. China x Philippines military clash before 2027?9 fills
  2. Trump out as President before 2027?7 fills
  3. US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?7 fills
  4. Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET6 fills
  5. US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?6 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Crypto
+0.7%
171 trades
World
+0.9%
114 trades
Politics
+2.0%
89 trades
Tech
+0.4%
20 trades
Economy
+6.0%
8 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
Open in the app — free
Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.