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SmartPredictOrNot

0xe6ca6ebbec97e8a46ff3dbdb2a99d46254fbbff4Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Polymarket #33 · 7d volumePrimarily: Sports
Farming risk: under review
1 emerging signal — our model is watching, not yet flagging.
Still trading: yes
Last trade today · 154 trades in the last 90 days.
Per $500 copied: ≈ −$66
Net of modelled fees and copy latency over the graded tape — headline edge -9.3%, realistic -13.2%.
58/100
CopyGrade Score
Copy with caution
Based on a 90-day trade window
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Emerging signals
1 early signal — not conclusive.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is SmartPredictOrNot worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Watch, don't copy yet: emerging farming signals are under review.

This wallet scores 58/100 — copy with caution. Over the trailing 90 days it made 154 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -13.2% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It has 1 emerging farming signal under review.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 48/100 with a -1.4% realistic post-fee edge (all 11,854 graded wallets, as of October 2, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded October 1, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Sep 24 – Oct 2, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Caution · 9 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
96
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
26
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
8
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
88
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
Emerging signals
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-9.3%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-13.2%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−3.9 pts
Recent form · last 14 days

0–1 on game moneylines

1 settled call on MLB moneylines in the last 14 days — under 5, too few to read as a record. Calls are pre-kickoff net positions of $250 or more, settled by the final.
Expected hits
0.6 of 1
Current streak
—

Expected hits is the sum of the prices paid — how many of these calls the market itself expected to win. A record only means something against that number.

Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers
MLB · Sep 23 · Detroit Tigers at 63¢
miss

Form is display only — it does not move the CopyGrade Score. Read from the ingested trade tape and each game's settled final; a position sold after kickoff still counts as the call it was at kickoff. Stakes and dollar results are on the in-app verdict.

Forensic check

1 farming signal detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
Emerging signals
1 early signal — not conclusive.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 154 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
105
Avg hold
4.1 hours
Active span
Sep 23 – Oct 1, 2026
Trades per month
93
Sep
61
Oct
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?76 fills
  2. Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?61 fills
  3. Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-09-26?11 fills
  4. Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers6 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Sports
+41.3%
154 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
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What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
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Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.