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2012shadow

0xebaea324f3ddbdee1c83926e574e613f2a3de9d8Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: World
44/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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Emerging signals
1 early signal — not conclusive.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is 2012shadow worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: the wallet grades in the lowest band — the risk-adjusted record doesn't support copying.

This wallet scores 44/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 170 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -0.3% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It has 1 emerging farming signal under review.

For context, the median active Polymarket wallet scores 42/100 with a -4.8% realistic post-fee edge (July 2026 snapshot) — all published numbers.

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Aug 10 – Aug 26, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 17 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Each scored 0–100, recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
44
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
0
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
93
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
36
Farming Safety
Clean-behaviour score — higher is safer to copy.
60
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-0.2%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-0.3%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−0.1 pts
Forensic check

1 farming signal detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
Emerging signals
1 early signal — not conclusive.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 242 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
100
Avg hold
under an hour
Active span
Mar 27 – Aug 25, 2026
Trades per month
10
Mar
19
Apr
43
May
50
Jun
50
Jul
70
Aug
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?7 fills
  2. Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?5 fills
  3. Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?5 fills
  4. European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? 4 fills
  5. Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?4 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Politics
-0.2%
115 trades
Sports
-0.2%
65 trades
World
-0.1%
24 trades
Culture
-0.1%
13 trades
Tech
-0.1%
7 trades
Economy
-0.1%
6 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
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What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
Open in the app — free
Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.