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AllDayFirefly

0xf61a978a27c23912c96da4c270a4dd184c54d3c6Embed badgeView on Polymarket
Primarily: Crypto
30/100
CopyGrade Score
Avoid
Based on a 90-day trade window
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High farming risk
6 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
The answer

Is AllDayFirefly worth copying?

The verdict, in plain English

Avoid: our model flags severe farming risk — a trade pattern consistent with monetising copiers rather than edge.

This wallet scores 30/100 — avoid. Over the trailing 90 days it made 12 trades with a realistic post-fee edge of -56.6% once copy-bot latency and slippage are priced in. It is flagged for 6 farming signals.

For context, the median graded Polymarket wallet scores 47/100 with a -1% realistic post-fee edge (all 8,517 graded wallets, as of August 29, 2026) — all published numbers.

Graded August 29, 2026 · re-scored hourly from public trade history

Verdict history

Which band, and for how long

Daily verdict-band timeline, Jun 2 – Aug 29, 2026. The full score-history chart lives on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Negative · 79 days
Five-factor breakdown

Sub-scores

Four factors scored 0–100, plus the farming screen — a pass-or-flag check. Recomputed on each sync.
Edge Authenticity
Is the profit skill or luck/variance?
83
Risk-Adjusted Return
Sharpe-equivalent — not just raw profit.
22
Drawdown Resilience
How it behaves in losing streaks.
14
Consistency / Regime
Does the edge hold across time?
68
Farming Risk
A wash-trading / airdrop-farming screen — a pass-or-flag check, not a 0–100 grade, and not a read on profitability.
High farming risk
The latency tax

Realistic copy return

What you'd actually have made copying this wallet for the last 90 days — after Polymarket fees, gas, and a typical 380ms copy-bot latency.
Wallet's headline edge
What Polymarket's leaderboard shows
-40.4%
Your realistic edge if copying
After latency, slippage, fees
-56.6%
The gap — what latency and fees erase−16.2 pts
Forensic check

6 farming signals detected

This wallet shows behaviour that can turn copiers into exit liquidity.
High farming risk
6 signals detected.
Algorithmic assessment of public on-chain data · How this works
Each signal is tied to specific on-chain activity — the full evidence trail is on the in-app dossier. Open it free →
Trading activity

What this wallet actually does

From the last 182 synced fills. The full trade tape and realized PnL are on the in-app dossier — free with an account.
Closed round-trips
16
Avg hold
6.4 days
Active span
Nov 8 – Jul 21, 2026
Trades per month
1
Nov
106
Dec
0
Jan
0
Feb
42
Mar
2
Apr
19
May
10
Jun
2
Jul
Where it trades

Most-traded markets

By fill count over the analyzed window.
  1. Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?16 fills
  2. Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 8AM ET14 fills
  3. Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET10 fills
  4. Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET10 fills
  5. Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET10 fills
Coverage

Category edge

Post-fee edge per category, best-evidenced first. A large edge on a handful of trades is noise, not skill — the trade count next to each figure is the part that tells you which is which.
Crypto
+21.1%
121 trades
Sports
0.0%
25 trades
World
-55.5%
18 trades
Economy
0.0%
15 trades
Politics
-4.9%
3 trades
Where the edge actually lives

Category-edge breakdown

Edge is category-specific — a wallet that's +21% on NBA can be −11% on politics. The full per-category breakdown is on the in-app dossier.
Open in the app — free
What you'd be copying

Open positions & simulator

See this wallet's live open positions and run an honest, latency-adjusted backtest of copying it with your own capital.
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Keep digging

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Open the full dossier — freePro: alerts on the wallets you trackHow the CopyGrade Score works

CopyGrade is independent, analysis-only due diligence — it never executes trades or holds funds. Scores are computed from public Polymarket data and recomputed on each sync; see the methodology, farming detection, and the graded Polymarket leaderboard. Not financial advice.