Six weeks before the MLB playoffs, all 15 positive-verdict wallets on the board are brand new
The MLB regular season ends September 27, the Wild Card round opens September 29. Six weeks out, Polymarket's MLB money is already enormous — and our graded MLB board says almost none of the people making it are worth copying: of 1,120 graded wallets with meaningful MLB activity, exactly 15 carry a positive copy verdict, and those 15 have traded $30,200 of MLB volume between them, are collectively down $1,533 on realized MLB profit, and not one of them has been under observation for 60 days.
All wallet figures are a point-in-time pull from CopyGrade's live scored set via the read-only database, dated 2026-08-14. The method is documented here.
The board, split by verdict
| MLB board (2026-08-14) | Wallets | Volume | Realized profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Positive — worth starting diligence | 15 | $30,200 | −$1,533 |
| Caution | 443 | $88.2M | +$3.75M |
| Negative | 662 | $228.1M | +$3.93M |
| Total | 1,120 | $316.4M | +$7.68M |
Read that top row again. The wallets our model rates as the board's only copy candidates are microscopic — $30k of turnover across fifteen accounts on a $316M board — and their combined realized MLB result is negative. They hold positive verdicts because their overall records clear the bar, not because they have proven anything on baseball. And every one of them is young: zero of the fifteen have 60 days of score-snapshot coverage, the same brand-new-wallet pattern we found on the NFL board, where a wallet first seen four days earlier was scoring 86. A positive verdict on a wallet we've watched for a month is a starting point; on a wallet we've watched for a week it's barely a rumor — here's how to read a score against its age.
The clean cohort is donating
Split the same board by our farming-risk check instead:
| MLB cohort (2026-08-14) | Wallets | Volume | Realized profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passes farming check | 475 | $59.5M | −$53,721 |
| Watch-level flag | 158 | $76.2M | +$3.94M |
| Severe farming flag | 487 | $180.6M | +$3.79M |
The 475 wallets that pass the check — the only cohort a copier could even consider — finished net negative on $59.5M of turnover. The board's entire $7.68M of realized profit sits with the flagged cohorts. When we mapped all 25 category boards on August 5, MLB's passing cohort was already fractionally underwater — a −0.06% take on its own traded volume, on a board then carrying $277M — and on this fresh read the shape is the same, just starker. MLB is not the NFL board, where the clean cohort genuinely out-earns the flagged one — on baseball, the honest money is the exit liquidity.
The board doubled — that's our reach, not the market
In our MLB postseason guide's late-July snapshot the board held 457 wallets, 75% of them farming-flagged. Today it holds 1,120, with 58% flagged (645 of 1,120). Neither number is a trend: the board more than doubled because our discovery and coverage keep growing, and farming signals are recomputed from scratch on every sync — so the falling flag rate mostly reflects who the instrument can now see, not a market getting cleaner. We publish levels, dated; we don't publish farming trends, because the instrument can't support them.
What to do with the six weeks
The regular season's daily games are the best vetting data in sports — hundreds of resolved, comparable markets before the small-sample chaos of October. Three moves:
- Build the watchlist now, from evidence, not verdict pills. Fifteen young, tiny positive verdicts are not a shortlist. Use the board to find wallets with real MLB sample, then run the full vetting checklist — and demand weeks of observation, not days.
- Backtest before you commit. The Copy Simulator replays a candidate's real fills under your capital, fees, slippage and latency — here's how to run an honest backtest.
- Decide your exits before the bracket starts. October compresses samples and sharpens prices; write the stop rules now, while nothing is on fire.
Caveats
These figures cover CopyGrade's covered universe, not all of Polymarket, and are a dated snapshot — the board recomputes with every sync and will have moved by the time you read this. Realized profit is computed from public trade history against a published methodology and understates wallets holding unresolved positions. Board attribution is per category, so wallets active elsewhere appear on other boards too. A farming-risk flag is an algorithmic risk assessment, not an accusation of conduct. A "positive" verdict is where diligence starts, not a recommendation — our own validation of whether the score predicts copier returns is still null.
CopyGrade is analysis-only — it never executes trades, holds funds, or custodies keys, and a CopyGrade Score is a documented research opinion, not financial advice.