We graded the soccer wallets: Polymarket's biggest board, a Premier League clean cohort underwater, and one wallet on top of all three soccer boards
Soccer is the biggest thing CopyGrade grades. The soccer board holds 7,120 wallets and $1.36B of attributed volume, nearly twice the esports board's $740M, the next-largest of our 26 category boards, and 46.9% of its wallets carry a farming-risk flag against 34.6% site-wide. The two club competitions inside it tell a sharper story. On the Premier League board and the Champions League board, the wallets that pass the farming check finished −$35,639 and −$34,222 on their league's markets. A watch-flagged minority took more than nine-tenths of each board's net profit. The same single wallet tops all three soccer boards by profit.
There is one way soccer differs from hockey: it has specialists. 450 soccer-board wallets trade nothing else we grade. That is 6.3% of the board, against four hockey-only wallets out of 1,236 on the NHL board the same day. The 125 positive verdicts on the soccer board are a real population, too, though one of them holds 97% of the cohort's soccer profit.
All wallet figures are a point-in-time pull from CopyGrade's live scored set via the read-only database, dated 2026-10-23. Market figures come from our Gamma event sweep the same day. The boards recompute with every sync, so every figure here is a dated level, never a trend. "Real edge" is our post-fee, post-latency estimate of what a copier would have kept across a wallet's whole record, not its soccer record alone, per the published methodology.
How big is soccer on Polymarket?
Every soccer match is a Polymarket event, and most matches carry several: a three-way result event (home win, draw, away win, each its own Yes/No market) and companion events for totals, both-teams-to-score and halves. Event counts therefore overstate match counts, so the table below quotes volume only. It covers events in each competition's series that resolved between August 1 and October 23, 2026, as our sweep recorded them.
| Competition (Polymarket series) | Volume, events resolving Aug 1 – Oct 23, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Premier League | $292M |
| La Liga | $264M |
| Champions League (qualifying + league phase) | $247M |
| UEFA Nations League | $211M |
| Serie A | $116M |
| MLS | $89M |
| Europa League | $75M |
| Bundesliga | $70M |
The Premier League is the largest soccer series we sweep, and the Champions League is the third. The EPL and UCL boards are built on those two competitions' tags. The soccer board is built on the soccer tag, which every one of these series carries, so it is the umbrella over all of them.
Who is on the boards?
| 2026-10-23 | Wallets | Flagged | Severe | Negative real edge | Median real edge | Median score | Attributed volume | Realized profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soccer board | 7,120 | 46.9% | 31.8% | 82.1% | −2.00% | 48 | $1.36B | +$38.2M |
| Premier League board | 2,363 | 48.2% | 33.6% | 84.3% | −1.00% | 50 | $137.3M | +$5.73M |
| Champions League board | 2,335 | 49.3% | 35.3% | 84.1% | −0.70% | 49 | $84.9M | +$4.11M |
| All graded wallets | 13,976 | 34.6% | 23.7% | 77.4% | −1.40% | 48 | — | — |
All three soccer boards sit in the lower half of our 26 boards by flag rate. Soccer is tenth-lowest, the Premier League eleventh-lowest and the Champions League twelfth-lowest. Nine boards sit below them, from Formula 1 (39.2%), golf (40.6%), the crypto-price board (41.1%) and the NBA (42.7%) upwards. The WNBA (76.6%), college football (72.6%) and cricket (71.9%) sit at the top. Every board sits above the site-wide rate, because a board requires five trades in one category, and repetition on one market family is exactly what the farming detectors read.
Negative real edge runs the other way. The Premier League board's 84.3% is the fifth-highest of the 26, and the Champions League's 84.1% ties MLB for sixth. Only Formula 1, golf, the NFL and the NBA are higher.
The clean cohorts lose, and a watch-flagged minority takes the profit
| 2026-10-23 | Cohort | Wallets | Attributed volume | Realized profit | Take | Profitable | Negative real edge | Median real edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | Passes farming check | 1,224 | $53.4M | −$35,639 | −0.07% | 200 | 87.6% | −0.50% |
| Watch-level flag | 346 | $47.4M | +$5,283,130 | 11.15% | 126 | 83.5% | −1.80% | |
| Severe farming flag | 793 | $36.5M | +$482,113 | 1.32% | 189 | 79.7% | −3.50% | |
| Champions League | Passes farming check | 1,183 | $28.7M | −$34,222 | −0.12% | 164 | 87.5% | −0.40% |
| Watch-level flag | 327 | $23.3M | +$3,914,612 | 16.78% | 70 | 83.8% | −1.40% | |
| Severe farming flag | 825 | $32.8M | +$229,340 | 0.70% | 183 | 79.3% | −3.30% | |
| Soccer (all) | Passes farming check | 3,782 | $564.7M | +$4,876,431 | 0.86% | 878 | 82.9% | −1.10% |
| Watch-level flag | 1,075 | $369.6M | +$26,812,838 | 7.25% | 311 | 81.3% | −1.50% | |
| Severe farming flag | 2,263 | $422.9M | +$6,498,120 | 1.54% | 691 | 81.0% | −4.20% |
On both club-competition boards the clean cohort traded more than a third of the volume and finished slightly negative. Watch-flagged wallets are about one in seven on each board, yet they took 92% of the Premier League board's net profit and 95% of the Champions League board's. On the soccer board as a whole the clean cohort is net positive, at $4.9M on $565M, which is a 0.86% take and about an eighth of the board's profit.
The columns on the right carry the split every sports board has shown since the NFL cut. Clean wallets are underwater more often than severe ones, at 87.6% against 79.7% on the Premier League board. They are underwater by less, at a median of −0.50% against −3.50%. Quote either half alone and the finding inverts.
One wallet tops all three boards
| Ranked by board profit, 2026-10-23 | Soccer | Premier League | Champions League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top wallet's share of board net | 20.2% (watch flag) | 43.5% (watch flag) | 68.9% (watch flag) |
| Top 10: profit | $23.8M | $4.94M | $3.85M |
| Top 10: share of board net | 62.4% | 86.2% | 93.7% |
| Top 10: flagged | 8 of 10 | 10 of 10 | 9 of 10 |
| Top 50: share of board net | 92.2% | 100.9% | 103.6% |
| Top 50: flagged | 42 of 50 | 49 of 50 | 49 of 50 |
| Everyone outside the top 50 | +$2.99M (7,070 wallets) | −$49,809 (2,313 wallets) | −$147,901 (2,285 wallets) |
The top wallet by profit is the same wallet on all three boards. It carries a watch-level flag and is one of the 100 largest wallets we grade by 60-day volume. On the Champions League board it holds more than two-thirds of the net result on its own. We are not naming it, because the concentration is the finding, and a fill-by-fill description of one position would be a name in all but form.
Outside the top fifty, the Premier League and Champions League boards are collectively underwater. The soccer board's remaining 7,070 wallets are $3.0M up between them, under 8% of the board's net.
Soccer has specialists, unlike hockey
| Soccer-board wallets, 2026-10-23 | Wallets | Share |
|---|---|---|
| On no board outside soccer, the Premier League and the Champions League | 450 | 6.3% |
| Also on the crypto-price board | 4,049 | 56.9% |
| Also on the NBA board | 3,201 | 45.0% |
| Also on the NFL board | 2,128 | 29.9% |
| Also on the tennis board | 1,696 | 23.8% |
| On both the Premier League and the Champions League boards | 1,475 | 20.7% |
| On five or more boards outside soccer | 4,103 | 57.6% |
| Median number of boards outside soccer | 5 |
Most soccer wallets are generalists, with a median of five other boards. A minority are not. Four hundred and fifty wallets trade soccer and nothing else we grade, against four hockey-only wallets on the NHL board that day, the same count our first NHL cut found. For a copier that matters: a soccer specialist's score is computed on a soccer record. A generalist's soccer profit is one slice of a book its score reads as a whole, so the verdict's category-edge breakdown is the first thing to open on a soccer-board name.
The positive verdicts: 125, and one holds almost all the profit
| Positive-verdict wallets, 2026-10-23 | Soccer | Premier League | Champions League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wallets | 125 | 30 | 40 |
| Combined board volume | $2.34M | $147,448 | $18,583 |
| Combined board realized profit | $501,452 | $5,087 | $271 |
| With 50+ board trades | 51 | 4 | 3 |
| Profitable on the board's markets | 84 | 18 | 19 |
| Observed 60 days or more | 77 | 16 | 20 |
| Observed under 30 days | 21 | 2 | 7 |
| Median CopyGrade Score (minimum 75) | 82 | 86 | 83 |
| Median real edge (whole record) | +3.6% | +2.7% | +3.1% |
All of them clear the four-part copyable bar, so "positive verdict" and "worth starting diligence on" name the same wallets here. The soccer board's 125 is the largest positive-verdict cohort of our 26 boards, and it has depth: 51 of them have fifty or more soccer trades, and 77 have been observed for sixty days or more.
The dollar figures need care. One wallet holds 97% of the cohort's soccer profit and two-thirds of its soccer volume. The median positive-verdict wallet has traded $401 of soccer, and the median soccer profit in the cohort is $10. On the two club-competition boards the cohorts are thin: $147k and $19k of combined volume. A copier looking for a vetted soccer record with depth has a short list to work from, and it starts on the soccer board, not on either league board.
Two weeks of the tape: who trades before kickoff
We read every fill graded wallets placed on Premier League and Champions League match markets since October 9, split by cohort and by whether it landed before kickoff (the game-start time Polymarket publishes per market).
| EPL + UCL match markets, fills since 2026-10-09 | Wallets | Fills | Buy volume | Fills before kickoff | Buy volume before kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes farming check | 291 | 3,200 | $12.1M | 66.8% | 93.2% |
| Watch-level flag | 114 | 1,881 | $12.8M | 53.6% | 93.7% |
| Severe farming flag | 380 | 30,995 | $16.6M | 33.8% | 53.9% |
| All graded | 785 | 36,076 | $41.5M | 37.7% | 77.6% |
The severe cohort placed 86% of the fills and 40% of the buy volume, two-thirds of its fills after kickoff. The clean cohort put 93% of its buy dollars down before the match started. Pre-match positioning is the only part of a record a copy-bot inherits at a comparable price, so the in-play share is a direct read of how much of a record a copier could ever have followed.
Three outcomes, not two
Soccer's result market has a third outcome, and the prices show it. In the 170 three-market result events on those competitions since October 9, graded wallets' pre-kickoff Yes buys on a team to win had a median price of 48¢. Only 15.7% were at 70¢ or above. Yes buys on the draw had a median of 22¢, and 95% were under 30¢.
A 48¢ team-to-win buy is not a coin flip in the hockey sense, because the draw takes a share of the probability. The arithmetic for reading a record is the same, though: sum the prices paid to get the hits the market expected, then read the record as the difference. The recent-form guide walks that sum. A wallet that buys the draw at 22¢ and hits one time in four has beaten its prices. A wallet that hits half its 48¢ team-to-win buys has only matched them.
What this means for copying soccer
Soccer gives a copier the most of everything: the most volume, the most wallets, and a real population of specialists and positive verdicts with sample. The two club competitions a reader is most likely to follow show the familiar shape, though. The clean cohorts are underwater on their league's markets, and the profit belongs to a small, mostly flagged group, led by one large wallet. The season guide sets out the soccer-specific checks. The general rule is unchanged: vet the whole record, price every hit, and treat a positive verdict as where diligence starts.
A farming-risk flag is an algorithmic risk assessment, not an accusation of conduct, and a positive verdict is not a recommendation. Our own validation of whether the score predicts copier returns is still null. CopyGrade is analysis-only. It never executes trades, holds funds, or custodies keys. Not financial advice.